ERCOT Hedging 101: Fixing kWh Cost Amid Data‑Center Load Growth

When scarcity pricing hits, budget shock follows. Here’s how Texas property owners lock predictable $/kWh with onsite PPAs and retail hedges—before load growth tightens the market.

Updated: September 13, 2025

Quick take (thesis)

Data‑center growth is pushing ERCOT toward more frequent scarcity events. Building owners can fix effective $/kWh by pairing a Solar PPA (physical hedge on production) with a fixed‑price retail contract (financial hedge on residual load). The result: budget certainty, lower blended cost, and less exposure to price spikes.

$75–$150/MWh
ERCOT forward strip pricing (2025–2026 on‑peak)
>30 GW
Projected peak data‑center load by ~2030
8–20¢/kWh
Typical TX commercial blended retail rates
$5,000/MWh cap
ERCOT system‑wide offer cap (scarcity pricing)

1. Hedging tools for Texas property owners #

Retail fixed‑price contracts: Lock a cents/kWh rate for 24–60 months. Good for residual non‑solar load; mind bandwidth, pass‑throughs, and 4CP language.

Onsite Solar PPA: Physical hedge where you consume the kWh you buy; hedges daylight usage and can reduce demand charges if sized to load.

Hybrid: Use PPA to shave daytime load and a retail hedge for nights/shoulders. Align tenors with major lease expirations to avoid mismatch risk.

2. What should a building owner do next? #

  • Pull 12–24 months of interval data (15‑minute) for each meter; identify peak hours and seasonal patterns.
  • Request fixed retail quotes and compare to a modeled onsite PPA rate band.
  • Quantify exposure to scarcity/4CP; run a downside case (hot summer, high load growth).
  • Pick a hedge tenor (2–5 years typical) and sync it with lease expirations and major cap‑events.

4. FAQ: ERCOT hedging basics

Q: Is a PPA enough to fully hedge my bill?
A: It hedges the solar production portion; residual load still floats unless you fix it with a retail contract.
Q: Can I pass through PPA charges to tenants?
A: Typically via CAM; align lease language for recoveries and disclosure.

Fix your kWh cost before the next spike

USSE will model your ERCOT exposure, size a PPA hedge, and benchmark fixed retail rates—so you lock cost certainty before the next scarcity event.